TURKISH GATE IN GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY: BAKU-TBLISI-CEYHAN PIPELINE

TURKISH GATE IN GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY: BAKU-TBLISI-CEYHAN PIPELINE

Nasrettin GÜNEŞ


Countries which their national resources are insufficient, try to provide energy sources as on time, uninterrupted and reliable way.

In this process; find to sustained, safety and solid sources is more important than find to cheap sources. Security of transportations system and flow of energy effect the countries both domestic and global policies.

In this sense, security of energy supply and demand is prominent factor in international energy market. Importer and exporter energy countries determine energy policies according to security and flow of energy.

Through long ages, the Middle Eastern crude oil was dominant sources in the international energy market. Even though, Middle East continues preserve the dominant role, but on the other hand, new significant energy sources are emerged, too. Particularly, demise of Soviet Union has enormous effects upon both global politics and economics.

In parallel with these developments, the issue of global energy security will leave its mark on the 21st century will be the most important policy variable. Archetypally, Baku – Tbilisi – Ceyhan Pipeline is an embodiment example for significant improvements in the energy market.

Within this framework, will be referred Turkish Gate in Global Energy Security: Baku – Tbilisi – Ceyhan Pipeline.[1]

 

Introduction

The Middle East remained profitable for a long time because of its advantageous geology and geography. On the one hand, the majority of the world’s oil reserves are in The Middle East region. On the other hand, huge reserves, exploration, development and production costs are very low in the Middle East. Nevertheless, crude oil quality and proximity to consumption places are other advantageous for the Middle East.

Apart from the geologic and geographical advantageous of the Middle East, there is a trouble situation in the region. The Middle East is regarded to be unstable because of the politics of the region that is embedded with history, religion, race, foreign intervention and domestic hostilities. Therefore, the situation does not always make it possible flow of energy for consumers. In this case, consumer countries and other actors of global energy market have begun the search for alternative energy sources to in the Middle East.

Energy of Central Asia is an invaluable opportunity for consumer states, international oil companies and finance institutions in the global energy market. Central Asia in general and Azerbaijan in particular have been placed in the center of the international energy market.

Nowadays, in Central Asia and Caucasus the new developments are emerged that direct of the world’s economic and political structures because of her geological and strategic location. Thusly, wherein the energy source to alternative (rival) for the Middle East crude oil. Because, the region in meeting the growing global energy demand, are at a crucial point.

Rich natural gas and oil reserves taken attention of dominant countries in the global energy market. On the one hand, rapidly developing economies such as India and China, on the other hand US and Europe Union deal to Central Asia and Caucasus.

 

  1. Strategic Significance of Central Asia in Global Energy Security Calculations

Central Asian oil and natural gas sources provide invaluable opportunities for main energy consumers in the sense that these newly independent countries are regarded to be the main elements of the ‘diversification of suppliers’ strategy in achieving the security of supply.

Lacking from the necessary funds and expertise to develop their hydrocarbon riches, Central Asian countries cooperated with different international companies in developing their reserves. This strategy has proven to be useful and successful when the status and the situation of international scale were looking for new areas of making investments. In this case, host countries and international companies can increase revenue and make more investment.

On the other hand, in the Central Asia, another issue is transportation. Transportations routes influence international investors and other actors in global energy market. The countries be in need especially, pipeline transportation way, because Central Asian countries are landlocked. Different pipeline projects are proposed and each project effect different actors in order to be more influential in regional.

 

  1. Baku – Tbilisi – Ceyhan Pipeline

Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline is a 1776 kilometers long crude oil pipeline from the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli oil field in the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. It connects Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan and Ceyhan, a port on the south-eastern Mediterranean coast of Turkey, via Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia.

The choice of the pipeline route is of vital importance for producer countries. It signifies the future of not only economic affairs but the standing of relevant countries in global strategic affairs.

The meaning of BTC route purports that Central Asian countries want to overhang Western world and determine the global strategy. This way is not only economic, the choice of route of pipeline is politic moves, at the same time.

On the other hand, Baku – Tbilisi – Ceyhan Pipeline is the second longest oil pipeline in the world. BTC Pipeline starts from Baku in Azerbaijan, runs through Tbilisi in Georgia and has arrive to the Mediterranean in Ceyhan, Turkey. The pipeline is designed to be 1776 kilometers in length. The length of the pipeline within Azerbaijan is 440 kilometers. Georgia hosts 260 kilometers of the pipeline. The majority of the pipeline is situated within the territory of Turkey. Turkey hosts 1076 kilometers of the pipeline.

There some reasons which effect the route of BTC Pipeline. Firstly, the reason directly related to relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh issue has made it impossible to run the pipeline through Armenian territory which could have been shorter distance for the pipeline.

The other issue which influence the pipeline route is related domestic in Turkey. BTC pipeline runs through nine city within Turkish territory. Firstly, it enters to Ardahan from Georgia, travels through northwest of Kars. Then, it divides Erzurum, north of Erzincan, crosses Sivas, west of Kayseri, and then north of Kahramanmaras. After that, the pipeline passes west of Osmaniye and finally arrive to Ceyhan (Adana), in the Mediterranean. The line could have been shorter if it has passed through the Southeastern region of Turkey. However, this line is regarded to be safer when PKK threat is taken into consideration. Turkey is important constituent of East-West transportation route.

BTC is projected to carry one million barrels of crude oil per day for a period of 40 years. Total cost of the project is regarded to be around 3.7 billion dollars. This huge cost has been financed by both public and private funds. USExim and OPIC (US), JBIC and NEXI (Japan), ECGD (UK), Hermes (Germany), COFACE (France) and SACE (Italy) are among the suppliers of funds to the project. Furthermore, international institutions such as World Bank, International Monetary Fund and European Bank of Reconstruction and Development have participated in the financing of the project. BTC pipeline has been developed by an international consortium known as the Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan Pipeline Company (BTC Co) in which British Petroleum acts as the operator. The respective shares of the partners in BTC Co are as follows:

British Petroleum-UK- has the largest share. The share of BP is 30.1%.

SOCAR-Azerbaijan- has a share of 25.0%.

Unocal-USA- has a share of 8.9%.

Statoil-Norway- enjoys a share of 8.7%;

TPAO- Turkey- has a share of 6.53%;

Eni/Agip-Italy- has 5% share in the project.

Total Fina Elf-France- occupies a share of 5.0%;

Itochu-Japan- has a share of 3.4%.

Other Japanese firm Inpex has 2.5% share.

Conoco Philips-US-has 2.5% share

Amerada Hess-US- has 2.4% share in the project.

 

  1. Conclusion

In line with these cases, considering the strategic dimension, BTC Pipeline line to run through our Turkey, will undoubtedly increase the importance of Turkey, in global energy market. The pipeline will also contribute on consolidation of Turkey ties with Azerbaijan and Georgia. Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia would be interlock between each other.

If Turkey ensure energy security on Baku – Tbilisi – Ceyhan Pipeline, it would be a model in the global energy security such as “Turkish Gate”, and this case will increase the importance and strategic situation of Turkey, in international energy market and global energy security.


[1] Asst. Prof. Dr. İdris Demir, Istanbul Medeniyet University Faculty of Political Scines, Department of International Relations,

Kiev Devleti’nden 1950’ye Rusya Ekonomisi

Kiev Devleti’nden 1950’ye Rusya Ekonomisi*

Nasrettin Güneş

Çarlık Rusya ve SSCB dünya siyasi tarihinin önemli birer aktörü olmalarına rağmen, iktisat tarihi açısından gerektiği şekilde incelenmemektedir. Rusya’nın siyasi tarihinin yanında iktisat tarihi açısından da gerektiği şekilde incelenmesi, SSCB’den ayrılan devletlerin daha iyi anlaşılmasına da yardımcı olacaktır.
Rusya’nın tarih içinde ulaştığı geniş topraklar Rus ekonomisini de şekillendirmiştir. Rusya tarih boyunca sahip olduğu geniş topraklarda üretimi ve savaşları destekleyecek insan faktörü, farklı iklim bölgeleri, ulaşım imkânları, Avrupa, Asya ve Ortadoğu arasında kültürel imkânlar gibi çeşitli jeostratejik özelliklere sahip olmuştur.

Rusya Siyasi Tarihi Dönemleri

1. Kiev Devleti (856-1223)

Rusya’nın siyasi tarihi 856 yılında prenslik olarak kurulan Kiev Devleti’ne dayanmaktadır. Tarihte bu dönem hakkında tarımsal faaliyetlerin yapıldığı, bazı ticari ilişkilerin kurulduğu ve nehirler etrafında toplanan insan gruplarının varlığından bahsedilmektedir. 988 yılında Hristiyanlığın resmi din olarak kabul edilmesiyle siyasi birlik sağlanmış ve bunlarla birlikte ekonomide yeni gelişmeler görülmüştür. Topraklar genişletilmiş, kale ve şehirler yapılmış, iskân faaliyetlerine girişilmiş, ulaşım ağları genişletilmiştir. Bu gelişmeler sistemli bir üretim ve ticaret yapısının başlamasını etkilemiştir. Bu dönemin sonlarına doğru özellikle siyasi ve dini birliğin sağlanamadığı yerlerde serfleşmenin artmasıyla birlikte fakirleşme ve sınıflaşma baş göstermiş; bölgenin ticari yapısı bozulmaya yüz tutmuştur. Kiev Devleti’nin ekonomisi tarım, hayvancılık, manifaktür üretim, ticaret ve özellikle transit ticaret üzerine kurulmuştur. Bu dönem ekonomisinin en önemli gelişmelerinden biri tahta saban kullanımından demir saban kullanımına geçilmiş olmasıdır.

2. İstila ve Moskova Çağı (1223-1613)

1223’te görülen Moğol saldırıları 1237 yılından itibaren istila şeklinde görülmeye başlanmıştır. Bu dönemde Moğollara ödenen vergi ve haraçlar devlet hazinesine mali yükler getirmiştir. Önceki dönemde başlayan ekonomik organizasyonlar etkinliklerini yitirmiştir. İstilalar ile birlikte, şehirler yağmalanmış, Rus toprakları içinde göç hareketleri başlamış, zanaatlar çökme durumuna gelmiştir. Endüstriyel ve ticari faaliyetler gerilemiş, ülke tam anlamıyla tarım ülkesi haline gelmiştir. 1300’lü yıllara kadar siyasi ve iktisadi durum böyle devam etmiştir. Bu dönemin en önemli gelişmelerinden biri 1340’lı yıllarda Rus topraklarına gelen ve 1347’de Avrupa’ya sıçramış olan vebadır. Nüfusun %20’sini yok etmiştir. Bu durum tarımsal üretimi de olumsuz etkilemiştir. 1462’de Ivan III, ilk defa bölgede güçlü bir yönetici olarak siyasi istikrarı sağlamıştır. Bu dönemin ekonomik yapısı daha çok Ivan IV (Korkunç) tarafından reformlarla iyileştirilmeye çalışılmışsa da köylülerin ekonomik durumu son derece bozulmuştur.

3. Moskova Çarlığı (1613 – 1917)

1605 yılına kadar Rusya kıtlık, salgın, isyan ve savaşlara sahne olmuştur. Özellikle 1598 ile 1613 yılları arasındaki karışık dönem Rusya ekonomisini olumsuz etkilemiştir. Zirai üretim yok denecek kadar az, ticaret daralmış, para kullanımı ve pazar yapısı bozulmuş duruma gelmiştir. 1613-1682 yılları arasında özellikle toplumsal sınıflaşma belirginleşmiştir. Borçlu köylüler kendilerini köle olarak satma durumuna gelmiş ve serf konumuna dönüşmüşlerdir. Bu dönemde tarım aletleri ilkel ve üretim yöntemleri geleneksel şekilde devam etmiştir. Kıtlıklar, kötü hava koşulları ve gübreleme yetersizliği tarımsal verimliliği iyice düşürmüştür. Ekonomik krizler görülmeye başlanmış, üretim yetersizliği ile şehir hayatı, ticaret ve devletin iktisadi yapısında bozulmalar başlamıştır. Bu dönemde Rusya hammaddeye dayalı ürünleri ihraç etmiş ve bunların karşılığında seçkin sınıfların ihtiyacına dayalı ürünler ithal etmiştir. Bu dönemin siyasi ve iktisadi iyileşmesi Petro I ile başlamış ve ihtiyaç duyulan finansal kaynağı vergilerin artırılması ve yeni vergilerin ihdas edilmesi iyi sağlamaya çalışmıştır.

4. Devrim Sonrası Rusya (1917 – 1950)

Devrim sonrası ayaklanmalar siyasi dönüşümler Rusya ekonomisini tam bir yıkıma götürmüştür. 1913 yılına göre devrim dönemi ekonomi 1/5 oranında gerilemiştir. Köylülerin toprakları artmasına rağmen, zirai ürerimde düşüş yaşanmış, hayvancılık yok olma noktasına gelmiştir. Üretim tesisleri kapanmış, üretici yurt dışına kaçmış, üretim azalmış ve sermaye sahipleri ülkeyi terk etmiştir. 1921-1923 yıllarında yaşanan kıtlıkta milyonlarca kişi yaşamını yitirmiş, ABD’nin yardım etmesiyle daha fazla ölümün yaşanması engellenmiştir. Ekonomi 1926’ya kadar gerilemiş Lenin’in yeni ekonomik politikaları ile tarımsal alanda ekonomik iyileşmeler yaşanmıştır. Stalin ile birlikte sanayileşme politikalarına önem verilmiş. Ücret farklılıkları kaldırılarak ücret eşitliği sağlanmış, rasyonel bir yönetim ve ekonomik sistem izlenmiştir. 1928’de ilk beş yıllık kalkınma planı ile ekonomik kalkınma, ekonomik bağımsızlık, komünizme geçiş, maliyeti düşürmek, verimliliği artırmak ve piyasaların düzenlenmesi hedeflenmiştir.

Nasrettin Güneş, 31.12.2015

*Mesut Küçükkalay, “Kiev Devleti’nden 1950’ye Rusya Ekonomisi”, Dünya İktisat Tarihi, ss. 387-423, konusu özetidir.

Thomas Hobbes, John Locke and Jean Jack Rousseau

Thomas Hobbes, John Locke and Jean Jack Rousseau are the most well-known names in the history of political thoughts. This trio is named as “social contractarian”.

The social contract is a fictional depiction of nature. Hobbes, Locke and Rousseau interpret the nature according to their own thoughts. For example, Hobbes says that the nature is chaos and turmoil because of the freedom and stop at nothing. On the other hand Locke describes the concept of equality, because everyone has borders for their life. So nobody bothered each other, they know their limits and benefits. And according to Rousseau there is equality in nature. People are not dependent on each other, because everyone is compassionate and helpful.

The thinkers described the nature with different aspects, so different ideas have emerged. Each thinker fictions a social contract themselves, because they have different values. Therefore, they interpret the concepts differently, because of these differences. Such as these concepts: “state, freedom, society, power, source of power, self-control, and ext.”

For example according to Hobbes before occurring of state, there was fighting, war, and strife in the nature. In other words “man is a wolf to man” or “homo homini lupus”. And everyone had a fight with anyone. Society did not progress at such a time. Therefore, people agreed for providing order and peace among themselves and the end of it they made a contract. They transferred their freedoms to Leviathan (state). Lastly, according to Hobbes, the state was born for providing order from the social contract by the people which is in natural life. Leviathan’s mission is to maintain order. Thus, in the Hobbes’s conceptions state is not liberal, it is authoritarian.

John Locke says that there was peace and freedom among the people who lived in the old period, before occurring the state. The people had happy lives. There was a trouble and it was punishment. There was not any soot for punishment. Therefore people made a contract and they gave up from their punishment rights. Due to the contract people moved to political society from natural society.

Last thinkers on the subject is Rousseau. According to him, there was equality, peace and happiness among the people in natural life. But people started to cover their needs, and this gave rise to private property. Equality was damaged with the emergence of private property. Fighting and bickering came out instead of peace and happiness. People made a contract to end the turmoil in the society. A social committee was formed with the contract, and this is state.

As mentioned above, Thomas Hobbes, John Locke and Jean Jack Rousseau have social contract, and again as mentioned above, they have different conceptions for the social contract. We have explained the reasons that what they are.

As a result, ruled citizens and rulers made a social contract. If they honuor the contract mutually, and respect the rule of law, will come out in a well-organized state.

NASRETTIN GUNES, IR, 2014

Electoral Systems and Party Systems

Electoral Systems and Party Systems
secim_sistemiModern democracy is the democracy of parties. A non-party political electoral system is as an eggless omelette. The voters have the chance to make a selection among the alternative political programs offered to him by the parties. But it is not possible in a non-party society.

Political parties are variables that necessarily interact with selection system and greatly shape the contents of the selection system. Party systems refer to a system that has alliances and competition between the different parties. The parties has a direct impact on Today’s electoral system.

The main objective of the electoral system is becoming to elect a government and to provide stability and it is done by the political parties. In today’s electoral system, the parties enter elections and is selected by the votes received.

On the other hand the effective number of parties is a concept which provides for an adjusted number of political parties in a country’s party system.

The number of effective parties varies each year. For example, in Turkey, within a year some parties have been establishing while some have been withdrawing from politics. There are some examples of well-known active parties; (CHP, AKP, MHP, DSP, SP, BDP and BBP.)

Another thing about the electoral system is that, because of different electoral systems in the World, many countries political parties enter the elections in different ways. For example, a proportional representation system is being implemented in Turkey. In France, two rounds, uncontested majority system is being implemented and in the USA single-turn majority system is being implemented. All of these systems differ from each other.

As a result, although there are different electoral systems, a democratic state cannot achieve identity of the true democracy without political parties.

 Nasrettin Güneş – International Relations